Fantasy Footballers! You Need This List!! Top 10 Busts!!
Okay, if you are reading this, you have probably read dozens of sleeper and bust articles on the web detailing why you should draft Cardinals RB Ryan Williams over Beanie Wells or some other combination. But this is the one you want to take with you into your draft. Why? Because I’m right. Well, I think I’m right. Anywho, you won’t be dissappointed if this is the only list you use in your draft. So without boosting my word count any more, here are the 10 players to completely avoid or, at least, don’t draft where they’re average draft position (ADP) is. (The ADP is based on a 12-team draft on Fantasy Football Calculator.)
1. Kenny Britt – WR Tennessee Titans (ADP: 72) – There are two main reasons to drop him from your draft board. 1. He is incredibly injury-prone. He only played in 12 games and despite nine touchdowns, he was too boom or bust for me. Almost a third of his yards and exactly one-third of his touchdown total came in one game last year. Yes, when he’s on the field, he is a force, but how can he dominate with a 35-year-old Matt Hasselbeck and/or rookie Jake Locker running the offense? There is just too much risk for him to be rated as a Top 30 receiver.
2. Peyton Manning – QB Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 35) – Yeah, you read right. The most consisent QB of the past decade will be a bust this year. He’s coming off of his second neck surgery in 15 months and isn’t expected to play at all this preseason. Now, if there is anyone that can come back and play like he never left, it’s Manning. But I think he will have serious issues scanning the field with a bad neck. Add in an aging and inconsistent rest of the offense and the 35-year-old could be seeing the beginning of a slow steady decline.
3. BenJarvis Green-Ellis – RB New England Patriots (ADP: 67) – The Lawfirm came through as a waiver-wire savior last year, but when has coach Bill Belichek ever stuck with just one RB? Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead were the one-two punch last year, but it’s just as possible that Belichek goes with two complete unknowns by Week 4. It’s not that The Lawfirm isn’t talented enough to be drafted as a mid-6th rounder, it’s that his coach may not give him the opportunity to do so. If he falls to the 8th round, I’d take him. But 6th? I’ll let someone else take a gamble on him.
4. Marques Colston – WR New Orleans Saints (ADP: 44) – Colston has had five knee surgeries in five seasons. His knees are bound to give out at some point and I’m betting it’s this year. Yes, the Saints are one of the biggest offenses in the league, but QB Drew Brees has 47 targets to throw to. Colston may be the go-to receiver for now, but I don’t see it lasting long if his knees can’t hold up. A mid-4th rounder it too high for a walking injury.
5. Ryan Matthews – RB San Diego Chargers (ADP: 39) – Last year, he was the rookie to draft going as high as the second round in fantasy drafts. This year, expectations are tempered, but he’s still going in the late 3rd and early 4th round. Matthews didn’t prove anything last year and he already battling a preseason injury. You can get his backup Mike Tolbert at least four rounds later and I’m betting they get the same stats. Take a sure thing around pick 40. Potential should be later in the draft.
6. Brandon Lloyd – WR Denver Broncos (ADP: 49) – Last season, Lloyd connected with QB Kyle Orton in then-head coach Josh McDaniels’ high-flying offense for 11 TDs and over 1400 yards. This year, new head coach John Fox is a much more conservative and run-oriented guy which does not bode well for Lloyd (or Orton for that matter). Lloyd didn’t do much the previous six years of his career and at the age of 30, I doubt he will again.
7. Frank Gore – RB San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 17) – Frank, you’ve had a lot of good years with San Fran and you have made many a fantasy owner very happy. But you are 28 and the punishment of being the only running back for four years is certainly taking its toll. You will probably put up solid numbers, but you missed the last five games of last year with a hip injury and the quarterback and receiver play can’t get much worse. You’re it and defenses know it. So do savvy fantasy owners. If you take Gore, you better have a solid #3 RB on your bench, you’re going to need him.
8. Jeremy Maclin – WR Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 50) – I love Jeremy Maclin, but there is one major question with him. He reportedly had mono during the offseason and for the brief amount of time that he was in camp, he was weak and appeared frail. Now he is having tests done back in his hometown of St. Louis. The worst part? The Eagles are not saying a word about it. Nobody knows what is going on with Maclin, what is wrong and when (or if) he’s going to be back. Don’t get me wrong, if he was healthy he’s easily a WR2. But I’m not spending a WR2 pick on someone who is the epitome of a question mark.
9. Marshawn Lynch – RB Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 68) – Lynch had one of the best runs in history during the playoffs against the Saints. But that’s not going to happen every week. In fact, with a patchwork offensive line (stud right tackle Russell Okung already has a high-ankle sprain) and the mediocre-at-best Tarvaris Jackson at QB, Lynch is going to have to shoulder a lot of the burden in Seattle. He might be able to, but I don’t think he has the ability to take over a team like Arian Foster did last year in Houston. Lynch is being drafted as a third RB, which is probably where he should be, but I see RB4 numbers with one or two breakout games mixed in. Good luck starting him in those games.
10. Michael Crabtree – WR San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 82) – Look, Crabtree thinks he’s Terrell Owens. “If I piss and moan enough then I’ll get the ball thrown my way and I’ll get my stats.” Reality check: Crabtree has done nothing to prove that he has TO’s skill set since he turned pro. Crabtree held out his rookie year and last year he played in every game, but the QB play was so horrific that he only caught 6 TDs and accumulated 741 yards. This year he’s already hurt, they brought in downfield threat Braylon Edwards and the QB play is not going to get any better with Alex Smith back and rookie Colin Kaepernick nipping at his heals. Crabtree is being drafted as a WR3, but he’s nothing more than a bye-week fill-in until things improve under center…and he gets his prima-donna tendencies in check.
Disagree with my assessments? Let me know in the comments.