Now I’m Really Angry, IV

Now I’m Really Angry, IV

Seems as though someone(s) is thinking twice about Kosovo… Building on my rant yesterday, where I guessed that Turkey would cut off the Euphrates River, allowing the Russians a route into Israel, here’s what the “real” newspapers have to say:

February 21, 1999

Redrawing the Mideast Map

By ROBERT D. KAPLAN

“Turkey’s capture of the Kurdish terrorist Abdullah Ocalan and the violent demonstrations it has sparked throughout Europe lift the curtain on the 21st-century Middle East. The 20th century was dominated by the Arab-Israeli conflict. The early 21st may well be dominated by tumultuous change in Turkey, Syria and Iraq, in which the stateless Kurds will play the pivotal role.

Kurdish nationalism could become the kind of issue — like Palestinian nationalism — that forces people to choose sides. And the Kurds are connected to another determining issue: the availability of water.

In 1984, because Syria believed that Turkey was seeking to deprive it of Euphrates River water, President Hafez al-Assad gave Mr. Ocalan a rear base for his anti-Turkish insurgency. For 14 years, Mr. Assad used the Kurdish leader’s terrorism as a lever against Turkey in the same way he used Hezbollah terrorists as a lever against Israel.

Then, last October, Turkey, united in a new strategic alliance with Israel, demanded that Mr. Assad expel Mr. Ocalan or, as a Turkish general put it, Turkey’s army would “drive through one end of Syria and out through the other.” Mr. Assad caved in. He expelled Mr. Ocalan, whose capture means the Syrians now have no way to pressure Turkey for more water. And with the Ataturk dam network nearing completion in southeastern Turkey, Turkey’s generals will control the lifeblood of the Fertile Crescent to the degree that OPEC controlled the oil market in the 1970’s.

Therefore, Act I of the New Middle East ends with a Turkish-Israeli victory over Syria. Act II, however, could be more complex, bloody and unpredictable. This is because Turkey and Syria are each, in their own way, unstable. “

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This is the first one, I wrote it back on 20 February 1999:

Hi, everyone!

Well, World War One is starting again. Just consider:

“The archduke had few friends at court because of his venomous temper and because he had married a Czech countess in defiance of the emperor’s wishes. He was in Sarajevo to celebrate his fourteenth wedding anniversary as the emperor forbade him from appearing in public with his wife in Vienna. Franz Ferdinand was probably not aware that June 28 was also the anniversary of the Battle of Kosovo Polje (1389) and thus Serbia’s national day.”

which I ripped from this neat WWI page.

I strongly advise everyone, while America still exists, to learn about WW1 (in which my grandfather – of genuine viking descent- fought and received a medal for surviving the Battle of Verdun, where he killed a German soldier, who came over the trench wall… radical!). Learn about the causes. Startlingly, WW1 was started over Serbia, somewhat related to Kosovo. The alliances between the European power states (including Czarist Russia), both secret and public, didn’t help, either. And this time they want to eradicate the last holdout of the Ottoman Empire once and for all.

Learn about the history of Yugoslavia and how one man, Marshall Tito, kept it together through intense brutality and cunning. With him dead, the inevitable happened…

I strongly urge everyone to think about how savvy our current administration is toward such things. I personally believe that we are now entering another Viet Nam which will precipitate into a larger war that goes something like this:

1. NATO starts bombing Serbia, and “invades” Kosovo.

2. Russia attacks NATO on Serbia’s side. (It’s also an opportunity for them to make a pass at the countries they used to own, like Hungary, Rumania, etc.)

3. Since Kosovo is a Muslim enclave (at least since the late 1300’s), Iran and other powerful Islamic/Arabic countries (including African) will declare war on and attack Russia in a loose alliance with NATO forces.

4. Russia, in a panic, to avoid a pincer between NATO, to the west, and the Pan-Arab Forces and China (which sees the opportunity to attack Russia, South Korea and Japan), to the east, will attack Israel (why? simple, because Israel declared war on Russia when Russia attacked NATO -duh!), crossing the dried-up waters of the Euphrates (Turkey cut them off, with the UN’s help, to further grill Iraq). India (somewhat allied with NATO) attacks Pakistan (allied with the Pan-Arabs as well as China).

5. Lots of bombs go off…

6. After the war, Europe is consolidated into ten super-Nations. The USA, along with the rest of the Americas, is tremendously shaken by everything and assumes the role that a country like, say New Zealand, has now: relatively insignificant.

7. Then…

I’m crazy? Of course, but why aren’t you? Consider this: in the last two weeks the heads of the US Armed Forces have publicly called on the Administration to do something about increasing our “readiness” and have bemoaned the declining numbers of new military recruits. Two days ago it was suggested that the high school diploma requirement be dropped, opening up “opportunities” for more people to join. And if that doesn’t happen, guess what THEY are going to “have” to do about the readiness problem? Hint: the guy in the White House dodged it in ’68.

The war in the Balkans will be zero fun, there will be no “crushing of enemies, seeing them driven before us and hearing of the lamentations of their women;” that is, no cash and prizes to the winners. It will be even uglier than WW1.

Other items that make me paranoid (more than usual):

A. News reports about the so-called day-traders who, in additional to losing bizarre amounts of money they didn’t have in the beginning, are responsible for bidding up tech and other stocks/paralleled with the crash of 1929 which was largely a result of bizarre speculation on stocks.

B. King Hussein is dead. His son, the new king, is untested, hence, the Middle East is acutely (more than usually) destabilized.

C. Farmers and Oilmen are losing money by the ton as prices go lower and lower. Odd, I happen to like it when prices are low, don’t you? Well, when prices are too low, the farmers lose money (as do the oil workers). When then lose money, they lose the farms they own. Food becomes scarce since there’s no one to work the farms. PETA, last week, was protesting -on the Capitol stairs – that Congress was going to pass legislation giving relief (i.e., money) to pig farmers because pork bellies were too low. That’s a good one to watch. With oil prices so low, gasoline is cheaper than ever before (relatively speaking) that means “everyone” -including ex-hippie pukes who need to think about what they’re doing, is buying these huge gas-guzzling SUVs. Oil workers will be laid off in droves…

I’m sure there’s more to come, much more. Stock up on your history lessons ASAP.

Check out who got into the mess 85 years ago:

World War I, the war, from 1914-1918, which began as a local European conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia on July 28, 1914; was transformed into a general European war by the declaration of war made by Germany against Russia, August 1, 1914; and eventually became a global war involving thirty two nations, twenty eight of which, known as the Allies and the Associated Powers, and including Great Britain, France, Russia, Italy and the United States, opposed the coalition known as the Central Powers, consisting of Germany, Austria-Hungary, Turkey and Bulgaria.

The Nations Involved in the Great War

Austria-Hungary Declared war on Serbia

July 28, 1914, Declared war on Russia , Aug 6, 1914 Declared war on Belgium,Aug 28, 1914 Declared war on Portugal,March 15, 1916

Belgium Refused German ultimatum demanding permission for German troops to cross Belgium Aug 2, 1914 Invaded by Germany, Aug 3-4, 1914

Bolivia Severed relations with Germany, April 13, 1917

Brazil Severed relations with Germany April 11, 1917,Declared war on Germany,.Oct 26, 1917

Bulgaria Declared war on Serbia,.Oct 14, 1915 Declared war on Rumania,Sept 1, 1916

China Severed relations with German …..March 14, 1917 Declared war on Germany ,Aug 14, 1917 Declared war on Austria-Hungary ….Aug 14, 1917

Costa Rica Severed relations with Germany ….Sept 21, 1917 Declared war on Germany …May 23, 1917

Cuba Declared war on Germany ….April 7, 1917

Ecuador Severed relations with Germany ….Dec 8, 1917

France Invaded by Germany,Aug 2, 1914 Declared war on Austria-Hungary …..Aug 12, 1914 Declared war on Turkey ….Nov 5, 1914 Declared war on Bulgaria ….Oct 16, 1915

Germany Declared war on Russia ….Aug 1, 1914 Declared war on France ….Aug 3, 1914 Declared war on Belgium ….Aug 4, 1914 Declared war on Portugal …..March 9, 1916

Great Britain Declared war on Germany ….Aug 4, 1914 Declared war on Austria-Hungary ….Aug 12, 1914 Declared war on Turkey ….Nov 5, 1914 Declared war on Bulgaria ….Oct 15, 1915

Greece Declared war on Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, Germany and Turkey ….June 27, 1917

Guatemala Declared war on Germany ….April 23, 1918

Haiti Declared war on Germany ….July 12, 1918 Honduras Declared war on Germany ….July 19, 1918

Italy Declared war on Austria-Hungary …..May 23, 1915 Declared war on Turkey …..Aug 21, 1915 Declared war on Bulgaria …..Oct 19, 1915 Declared war on Germany,Aug 28, 1916

Japan Declared war on Germany …..Aug 23, 1914 Declared war on Austria-Hungary …..Aug 25, 1914

Liberia Declared war on Germany …..Aug 4, 1914

Montenegro Declared war on Austria-Hungary ….Aug 5, 1914 Declared war on Germany …..Aug 8, 1914 Declared war on Bulgaria …..Oct 15, 1915

Nicaragua Declared war on Germany and Austria-Hungary …..May 8, 1918

Panama Declared war on Germany ….April 7, 1917 Declared war on Austria-Hungary …..Dec 10, 1917

Peru Severed relations with Germany …..Oct 6, 1917 Portugal See Germany and Austria Hungary in this table

Rumania Declared war on Austria-Hungary ….Aug 27, 1916 Capitulated to Central Powers by Treaty of Bucharest …..May 7, 1918 Re-entered the war on the side of the Allies ….Nov 10, 1918

Russia Declared war on Turkey …..Nov 2, 1914 Declared war on Bulgaria ….Oct 19, 1915

San Marino Declared war on Austria-Hungary ….June 3, 1915

Serbia Declared war on Germany …..Aug 6, 1914 Declared war on Turkey …..Nov 2, 1914

Siam Declared war on Germany and Austria-Hungary …..July 22, 1917

Turkey Declared war on Rumania ….Aug 30, 1916 Severed relations with the US …..April 23, 1917 US Declared war on Germany ….April 6, 1917 Declared war on Austria-Hungary ….Dec 7, 1917

Uruguay Severed relations with Germany …..Oct 7, 1917

Hostilities between the Allied and Central Powers continued until the signing of the Armistice on November 11, 1918, a period of four years, three months and fourteen days. The aggregate direct war costs of all the belligerents amounted to about 186 billion dollars. Casualties in the land forces amounted to over 37 million; in addition deaths among civilian populations caused indirectly by war approximated 10 million.

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